The original URL for this prediction will no longer be available in 11 years (2011)
- ID
- 12578
- Status
- summarized
- Published
- 09 Aug 2026, 12:30 PM
- Fetched
- 11 Aug 2026, 3:45 AM
- Provider
- Hacker News
- Category
- dev-community
- Original URL
- http://longbets.org/601/
- Source URL
- https://hnrss.org/best
Summary
- Score
- 3.5
- Created
- 11 Aug 2026, 3:48 AM
- Tags
- Audience
- developersvibe_coders
What happened
A 2011 Long Bets wager between Jeremy Keith and Matthew Haughey tested whether the URL www.longbets.org/601 would still resolve by February 22, 2022. Keith bet link rot would claim it; Haughey bet stable URIs and 301 redirects could keep it alive. The URL survived, meaning Haughey won the $1,000 stakes.
Why it matters
If you maintain long-lived web apps or documentation sites, this bet is a concrete reminder that URL persistence requires deliberate engineering—301 redirects, stable URI schemes, and active hosting—not just leaving things alone. The fact that a small nonprofit site survived 11 years while vast amounts of corporate and government content didn't should inform how you design your own permalink and migration strategy.
Discussion angle
How do your current projects handle URL permanence—are you relying on redirects, or are old links already breaking silently?