How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
- ID
- 20482
- Status
- summarized
- Published
- 02 Sep 2026, 2:35 AM
- Fetched
- 04 Sep 2026, 4:03 AM
- Provider
- Hacker News
- Category
- dev-community
- Original URL
- https://danluu.com/zitron/
- Source URL
- https://hnrss.org/best
Summary
- Score
- 6.5
- Created
- 04 Sep 2026, 5:12 AM
- Tags
- Audience
- developersai_ml_learnerssaas_founders
What happened
Dan Luu systematically checks Ed Zitron's AI-skeptic predictions against actual outcomes, starting with Zitron's November 2024 claim that Meta, Google, and Microsoft are 'dying' companies thrashing on AI. Meta's GAAP results contradict this: revenue grew from $135B (2023) to $201B (2025), with profit rising from $47B to $83B. Luu, who has no financial stake in AI companies, frames the exercise as a test of prediction accuracy rather than a pro-AI argument.
Why it matters
If you've been deferring AI adoption or tooling decisions based on Zitron-style 'AI is a bubble, the big players are collapsing' narratives, this gives you concrete financial data showing at least one flagship prediction was flatly wrong. Use it to recalibrate which commentators you treat as credible forecasters versus entertaining contrarians, especially before making build-vs-wait calls on AI features.
Discussion angle
Which AI predictions—both bullish and bearish—has our group actually acted on, and how would we score our own track record against outcomes so far?